What is the price of your Cryptokitties? Price Prediction

cryptokitties

#1

Everytime i see a cute cryptokitty, i couldn’t resist my fingers from clicking on my metamask and buy it. The one doubt i have, is i have no way to tell whether i am buying it at a good price. There is absolutely no way to tell whether my kitty was underpriced or overpriced, especially when the cryptokitties auctions or opensea.io is not very helpful in estimating the true value of a cryptokitty.

But no worries! The genius me thought of a genius way to find our the true worth of my cryptokitty before i buy it. I will still but it regardless of the price! Yesterday, i saw Ciqala Bluemumu, a devilish looking cryptokitty that caught my eyes was on sale! So i decided to use this is the example for my price estimation experiment.

image

This is the cutie that i want to get because he looks like a fallen angel cryptokitty. He’s so cute with the little red devil horns and tiny wings. The price was quoted as 0.003 ETH, that is about $0.40 at the tim’ of this article, but i have no idea whether he is underprice or overpriced. That is why i did a small experiment to estimate the true value of Ciqala.

There are a few items i would be looking to justify its price:

  1. Kitty Type
  2. Generation
  3. Cooldown
  4. Family Jewels & Cattributes

Kitty Type

At the moment, there are only 5 types of cryptokitties: Normal, Fancy, Exclusive, Special Edition, Anomaly. In this article we will only be discussing about Normal cryptokitties. This is because for the unique ones, they do not normally have a floor price or ceiling price because these are extremely unique collectibles with very limited quantity, therefore their prices would be very dependent on the few high value collectible buyers.

Although Ciqala looks unique with the angel looking wings and devil looking horn, it is still just a Normal type cryptokitty. Majority of the cryptokitties are Normal type, so lets take a look at the Generation of Ciqala instead.

Generation

Ciqala is a Gen 6 cryptokitty. What i did next was head to kittyexplorer.com and search for the list of Gen 6 Normal kitties that were sold in the last one week (5th Mar, 2019 to 12th Mar, 2019). There were a total of 172 transactions, the most expensive one was sold for 1 ETH and the cheapest being sold for 0.00114 ETH.

There are multiple of calculation methods to define what is the true value of an asset like cryptokitties. I decided to use Mean Absolute Deviation (M.A.D) because this is the easiest way to take a quick look on the relevant prices. I have also included another MAD value that excludes a few outlier transactions where the kitties were sold for four times the average selling price.

Using M.A.D and a sample of 172 transactions of Generation 6 Normal type cryptokitties, the true value is 0.33 ETH before excluding the outliers. By excluding the outlier transactions, the MAD estimates a value of 0.0219 ETH. Comparing the auction price of 0.003 ETH against the M.A.D price estimation, Ciqala appears to be super undervalued!

Check out the worksheet calculation here.

Cooldown

The cooldown for Ciqala is still at the stage of snappy, means he can still breed and make babies every 10 minutes, which is relatively quick for baby makings. If i do not let it breed after adopting it, this should increase the value of Ciqala over time, since there would be fewer early generation cryptokitties that are still relatively virgin.

I did not do any price modelling for this criteria because there is insufficient data to prove the correlation between the cooldown state and cryptokitties selling price.

Family Jewels and Cattributes

Cattributes by itself does not hold much value in my opinion, but what makes it valuable are the family jewels that is associated with it. These jewels are not being valued as much at the moment because there are still many new ones successfully being breed everyday. Once there are no longer new jewels being produced, cryptokitties that are holding these jewels will spike in value. Ciqala does have one Amethyst jewel for its mekong fur and two Lapis jewels for its satiated mouth and flapflap wild element.

I would expect the value to be 1 ETH for each Diamond jewels, 0.7 ETH for each Gilded jewels, 0.5 ETH for each Amethyst jewels, and 0.2 ETH for each Lapis jewels within the next 9 months. Based on these jewels valuation, i predict that Ciqala should worth at least 0.9 ETH.

Is 0.03 ETH worth it for Ciqala Bluemumu?

Source: Giphy.com

Yes! There is no other way to say this but if i have enough ETH, i will buy all the Generation 0 to Generation 9 cryptokitties! Simply because these are single digit generation cryptokitties that holds most of the family jewels and are sure to be super rare as more cryptokitties are being breed over time.


#2

There are absolutely concrete ways to tell whether your kitty was underpriced or overpriced.

Market floors are pretty stable.
So your kitty has additional value or not. At this moment, your kitty can produce kitties with additional value or not.

And Cattributes, genes, and combinations of them on certain generation are the most important criteria when evaluating a normal kitty

Family jewels which you are looking at are not Mewtation jewels that you are writing about.
You can find a lot of kitties on your generation (1-6) that have much more family jewels in their bloodline with the price below breeding cost (for examples 7 total family jewels kitties)

So your kitty Ciqala Bluemumu is nice and cute and can be special for you, but in fact, it has only three M1 mewtations (Satiated, Mekong, Flapflap) on Gen6
You can find a kitty with the combination of these traits even on Gen2-Gen3 with the price on Gen5+ around 0.005Eth

So no, to the moment your kitty doesn’t cost 0.9Eth or even 0.03Eth
It is not so hard to make the same kitty. And this combination of traits is not used in any recipe to this moment.


#3

I think just collect all Gen0 cryptokitties, you will never go wrong with that


#4

There are a lot of strategies, and Gen0 hodl is one of them. But there are also some questions to this strategy in middle term and small dau :slight_smile:


#5

So what’s ur suggestion?


#6

I don’t want to give financial advice :slight_smile:
The fact that I know is that if a user wants to earn they should spend maybe some weeks to learn the game mechanics and price valuing.

And for the players with a small amount of Eth possibly worth to start learning what Fancies and Mewtation jewels are. But both cases have also enough nuances that worth to understand.

In fact, I think Gen0 hodl have a sense and I also own several dozen, but CryptoKitties is a game where even new players can compete with old ones. The +1 Gen is not a huge advantage for the large farms.

So Gen0 kitties price could increase and I believe in it, but there is a large difference in their quality because of genes scarcity. And the floor for the cheapest Gen0s price could be below 1Eth for the too long time. And there are better kitties you could buy now.

But on the other hand, there are some nice gen0s not far from the floor to the moment to buy, because in February one gen0 hodler (from top10) decided to sell off them and made a wall of 400+ good gen0s from 0.25 to 3Eth. Players gradually pulled bricks and for now, I think there are around 150 left and there are enough pretty cool gen0s.


#7

Yes! I shall buy up as many Gen0 as i can, then sell them off when BTC is at peak

Seems like u are a whale, owning several dozen of Gen0 could be pretty costly


#8

I’m far from being a whale. Here you can find Gen0 distribution
And 10 cheapest Gen0 cost only 2.5Eth now)


#9

are gen-0 kitties up for grab on opensea now?


#10

any hints on how much my kitties are worth?
I wanted to sell them or exchange it to axies…


#11

Which are your cryptokitties that you want to sell?


#12

all the ones in this profile:

I could put up a bundle on open sea if somebody wants them


#13

Don’t see any kitties that i want to collect